étude 1: Les séries récentes d'années chaudes sont-elles inhabituelles? http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2008/2008GL036228.shtml How unusual is the recent series of warm years? E. Zorita Institute for Coastal Research, GKSS Research Centre, Geesthacht, Germany T. F. Stocker Physics Institute and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland H. von Storch Institute for Coastal Research, GKSS Research Centre, Geesthacht, Germany Previous statistical detection methods based partially on climate model simulations indicate that, globally, the observed warming lies very probably outside the natural variations. We use a more simple approach to assess recent warming at different spatial scales without making explicit use of climate simulations. It considers the likelihood that the observed recent clustering of warm record-breaking mean temperatures at global, regional and local scales may occur by chance in a stationary climate. Under two statistical […]